Full UFC 150 Breakdown, Picks and Odds
Here is a full breakdown, picks and odds for UFC 150 taking place on August 11, 2012 at the Pepsi Center in Denver, Colorado. The following fights are featured on the preliminary card of UFC 150 and can be watched on FX starting at 5PM/8PM PST/EST.
Nick Lentz (21-5-2) vs. Eiji Mitsuoka (18-8-2) – Featherweight (145 LB.)
Lentz -300
Mitsuoka +240
To start the night off, Nik Lentz and Eiji Mitsuoka meet in a featherweight bout that has Lentz as the favorite on paper. Mitsuoka last fought and lost via TKO to Takanori Gomi at UFC 144. Lentz was also on the receiving end of a TKO loss. His came at the hands of Evan Dunham nearly seven months ago. Mitsuoka was one of the more promising lighter weight fighters to have come over to the UFC from Japan however the wrestling experience in this fight will be the difference. Lentz shouldn’t have a problem getting Eiji to the ground and once he does it will be a very long night.
Pick: Nick Lentz Wins Via Unanimous Decision
Dustin Pague (11-6) vs. Chico Camus (11-3) – Bantamweight (135 LB.)
Pague -180
Camus +150
It’s common for UFC rookies to be assumed as underdogs when they make their promotional debut. Such is the case for Chico Camus who trains with current lightweight title contender Anthony Pettis underneath coach Duke Roufus. What does that mean? Pague has been very active this summer but the 24 year-old athlete is 1-2 in the UFC and another loss will slide him farther down the rankings. Even though Pague is the betting favorite, my pick rests with Camus. He is eager to showcase his skills and if Pague doesn’t come out looking to finish early then he may be in for a war with Chico.
Chico Camus Wins Via Second Round TKO
Ken Stone (11-3 vs. Erik Perez (11-4) – Bantamweight (135 LB.)
Stone -125
Erik Perez -105
Ken Stone last fought and beat Dustin Pague with a split decision. Perez made his debut at “The Ultimate Fighter Live” finale where he defeated John Albert with a armbar submission. This should be a really close fight between Perez and Stone. Perez is looking to ride his momentum coming off his sixth straight win. This isn’t a satisfying bet in my opinion because the two are well paired. With that being said, I’m picking Stone to take this after 15 minutes. He’ll be more dominant on the feet and on the ground.
Pick: Ken Stone Wins Via Unanimous Decision
Jared Hamman (13-4) vs. Michael Kuiper (11-1) – Middleweight (185 LB.)
Hamman -115
Kuiper -115
This fight won’t go the distance. Of the 29 fights between these two combatants, only four of those have gone the full three rounds. Hamman has 10 knockout/TKO victories in his professional career and Kuiper has six of his own to bring to the table. The difference in this fight will be Kuiper’s ability to utilize his black-belt in Judo against Hamman and try to control the fight once it hits the mat. That’s if it ever does. Hamman has the advantage while on the feet and we think that’s where it stays until one of the two collapses.
Pick: Hamman Wins Via First Round Knockout
Dennis Bermudez (8-3) vs. Tommy Hayden (8-1) – Featherweight (145 LB.)
Bermudez -350
Hayden +250
Dennis Bermudez was featured on “The Ultimate Fighter Live” and has gone 1-1 since making his official debut for the UFC. Hayden, is coming off a debut loss against Fabricio Camoes and another one here could send him back into the regional circuit and out of the UFC. There is no doubt that Bermudez has the advantage in this fight. His wrestling skillset has been an important part of his victories in the past. It will also play a factor against Hayden. If Bermudez keeps Hayden on his back consider this three and done.
Pick: Dennis Bermudez Wins Via Unanimous Decision
Justin Lawrence (4-0) vs. Max Holloway (5-1) – Featherweight (145 LB.)
Lawrence -115
Holloway -105
Lawrence vs. Holloway makes for a very interesting matchup. Lawrence has the striking power to end the fight. He did so against John Cofer to claim “The Ultimate Fighter Live” championship award. Holloway’s advantage in this fight is his agility. He’s quick and so it will be fun to watch Lawrence deal with it. Holloway and Lawrence are young. Holloway has one more fight in the UFC than Lawrence and two more fights overall as a professional. This is by far a candidate for the fight of the night award and I see it going down to the wire.
Pick: Just Lawrence Wins Via Unanimous Decision
Yushin Okami (27-7) vs. Buddy Roberts (12-2) – Middleweight (185 LB.)
Okami -600
Roberts +400
Okami should have this fight in the bag. Roberts originally was slated to go up against Chris Camozzi but received an opportunity to step up in competition with a tilt against Okami. Roberts does have momentum going into this fight. He’s won his last seven whereas Okami has dropped his last two bouts. It’s very difficult to pick Roberts in this one as Okami has so much more experience than him.
Pick: Yushin Okami Wins Via Second Round TKO
Jake Shields (27-6-1) vs. Ed Herman (20-7) – Middleweight (185 LB.)
Shields -180
Herman +160
Jake Shields enters this fight after defeating Yoshihiro Akiyama back at UFC 144. Herman submitted Clifford Starks at UFC 143 with a rear-naked choke pushing his streak to three in a row. This fight marks the return to middleweight for Shields who went 50/50 at 170 pounds. Herman will have a tough bout against Shields as his preference is to grapple during bouts. Shields, a Cesar Gracie black-belt, is no stranger to rolling around having mastered the one-arm guillotine and using it to submit opponents throughout his career. This should go to Shields but Herman has a good chance at the upset if he can stay out of any triangle chokes.
Pick: Jake Shields Wins Via Unanimous Decision
Donald Cerrone (18-4) vs. Melvin Guillard (11-6) – Lightweight (155 LB.)
Cerrone -280
Guillard +240
Melvin Guillard can be a better’s addiction or worst enemy. He’s shown major holes in his ground game and seems to be content with that. His punching power speaks for itself so at any point in a fight he can drop a bomb and that’s the end of that story. Cerrone has showed, fight after fight, that he is not someone to go in there and just take a beating. If you punch him he’ll come back at you twice as hard. That’s why this fight should be fireworks. With Guillard and Cerrone in the middle of the cage, there should be no reason for it to go to the ground. Unless that’s of course Cerrone wants an easy pay day. If the fight stays standing then Guillard drops Cerrone in the second.
Pick: Melvin Guillard Wins Via Second Round Knockout
Ben Henderson (15-2) vs. Frankie Edgar (14-2-1) – Lightweight Championship (155 LB.)
Henderson -180
Edgar +160
The first fight between these two was a close one. Edgar took two of five and Henderson was able to capture the other three for what we thought was a split decision. That of course wasn’t what the judges saw; they gave it to Henderson via unanimous decision. The bookies are calling a draw to be 1/50. Henderson is the favorite having won the last bout. Edgar has got to do something impressive in this fight to win his belt back. Henderson will be too much for Frankie and he’ll win another five round war. This time he’ll be a little more decisive.
